People have created lots of models about bitcoin. I don’t know which ones to believe, so I try to learn about them all. When you’re making educated guesses about the future, it helps to have as much perspective as possible. One model is Elliott Wave Theory, which fits cryptocurrency very nicely. In this theory, markets move up in five waves, then down in three waves.
I do like your analysis. But there is not enough past data to conclude that model can be applied. As you mention yourself, there has been only one full cycle, with the other one currently underway. Thus, it can be false positive matching aligning perfectly, not the bitcoin following Elliot Wave Theory.
Yes, certainly possible. Thank you for reading my article!